Conflicting Polls On Trudeau Muddy Federal Landscape
WINNIPEG, MB – Recent federal polls paint a conflicting picture of Justin Trudeau’s support, which could lead to increasing doubt towards the already beleaguered polling industry.
Case in point: A new Ipsos poll shows Justin Trudeau’s Liberals with 39% support, the Conservatives at 32%, and the NDP at 20%.
Those results almost perfectly mirror the actual 2015 election results.
Of note, the poll shows that among people making $100,000 a year or more, 44% favoured the Liberals, with just 26% favouring the Conservatives. Responding to this finding, the head of Ipsos Darrell Bricker pointed out that the Conservatives tend to have more middle-class and entrepreneurial support, contrasting that to the Liberals who have been more successful among “Bay Street Laywers,” and “Senior Civil Servants.”
Contrast with Forum Poll
Interestingly, the Ipsos poll is in stark contrast with a recent Forum Research Poll, taken in the wake of the Federal Budget. That poll showed the Liberals at 36%, behind the Conservatives at 38%. The poll had also shown the budget was poorly received, with only 14% approving of the budget. That same poll projected a Conservative majority, whereas the Ipsos poll points to a Liberal majority.
The wide disparity in results further muddies the federal polling landscape, leaving doubt as to where the parties really stand.
The conflicting polls also point to the fact that polling has become less precise – as was seen in the victories of both Brexit and Donald Trump – both of which caught pollsters by surprise and reduced public confidence in the polling profession.
Time will tell whether that trust can be earned back.
Spencer Fernando, MyToba News